Probabilistic seismic hazard function based on spatiotemporal earthquake likelihood simulation and Akaike information criterion: The PSHF study around off the west coast of Sumatra Island before large earthquake events

The probabilistic seismic hazard function (PSHF) before large earthquake events based on the hypothesis forecast algorithm using Akaike information criterion (AIC) is performed in this study. motivation for AIC to better understand reliability model used construct PSHF. PSHF as of b-value calculated a 5-year window length with 1-year moving (instantaneous PSHF) event. likelihood success and failure shallow catalog data around west coast Sumatra Island. probability occurrence defines criteria more significant than average greater or equal given magnitude; otherwise, it defined failure. Seismic potency has been determined an occurring several decades hundred years. seismicity rate developed integrated pre-seismic crustal movement data. Furthermore, b(t). b(t) change time estimated from 1963 2016. In addition, M7.9 2000, M8.5 2007, M7.8 2010 assessed. δAIC then introduced (AIC –AIC reference ) during observation time. positive implies that having significant; smaller. By plotting versus b(t), we could identify gradient increase at each certain exceedance (PE) level great It consistently happened three were evaluated. suggested results study might be very beneficial analysis (PSHA) mitigation realization.